Confirmation Bias

Australia is going through some really shitty times ATM.

Climate change.

Scotty, the media guy.

The ongoing reign of Hass avocados in our supermarkets.

The concept of confirmation bias really came to my attention in 2019. I guess I always understood that it existed, but I don’t think I never had a name for it. I just thought “this is my belief and my beliefs are supported by what I read and see and what people tell me and what my friends and family believe, so why aren’t the things I think and want to see happen happening?”

I’m not saying that I have one-track mind and that I can’t shift my opinion, or that my beliefs are always steadfast, or that I don’t listen and take on board other points of view, I’m merely saying confirmation bias is real, folks. Consciously or subconsciously, it has a real hold on who we are, what we think and what we do.

Wikipedia is one of my favourite tools in the world and helps me on a daily basis. Here is the first paragraph from confirmation bias’s wiki:

Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favo[u]r, and recall information in a way that confirms or strengthens one's prior personal beliefs or hypotheses.[1] It is a type of cognitive bias. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for desired outcomes, for emotionally charged issues, and for deeply-entrenched beliefs.

The concept of confirmation bias hit me particularly hard on the weekend of Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th of May 2019. Two major world events were occurring at the same time; The 2019 Australian federal election and Eurovision 2019.

Now, I think to most people it would be obvious that my political lean is well to the left. I was probably more invested in this election than any other, and I firmly believed that the Labor Party were going to gain power. When they didn’t, I started to question how I could have not seen it coming. Everything that I saw, read, discussed and consumed supported my belief that what I thought would happen was going to happen. When it was clear that it wasn’t going to happen, I turned the channel to Legally Blonde and questioned the future of our nation.

I had unknowingly employed confirmation bias to support my belief.

Me and my housemate Stephen had followed Kate Miller-Heidke’s run to Eurovision with close scrutiny. It was clear at the Eurovision – Australia Decides event in 2019 that she was literally and figuratively head and shoulders above the rest of the field. She completely nailed the brief and I can’t imagine any of the other top 10 competing on that Eurovision stage.

Now, Stephen had tracked the competition much more closely than me, and in the lead up to the event he would sing the operatic sections of ‘Zero Gravity’ repeatedly; his renditions were usually spellbinding. There was one instance where he performed one section laying on the ground to prove his talent and skill. We took notice of the other performances (again, Stephen could tell you who sang what) but I was firm on the belief that Kate would somehow walk away with the Eurovision crown.

When she finished first in her semi-final, I jumped to the conclusion that she was easily going to do the same a couple of days later. I kept a close eye on the betting markets, I read news articles about ‘Our Kate’, I scoured Eurovision blogs to aid my confidence in her win. Yes, John Lundvick’s ‘Too Late for Love’ was excellent and he performed it brilliantly and he was easy to look at and he was representing Sweden, but our pole-bound Aussie was surely more of a fit for the title.

I arose in the early hours of that Sunday morning to watch her performance in the grand final. After all acts had finished, I ran downstairs, bought a coffee and croissant from a café (very European), settled on the couch and waited for the results to pour in. She was wearing a goddamn crown and sung operatic trills with ease all while suspended in mid-air. How could she notwin?

When the televotes were being announced, my stomach started to sink. She wasn’t winning, and she wasn’t even necessarily close. “It’s ok”, I thought, “the jury votes will put her in the lead.” They didn’t. She placed a commendable 9th.

The slogan for the 2019 event was “Dare to Dream”. Now, I did dare to dream, and my dreams were smashed. I returned to bed in hopes that I’d wake up and the past would be rewritten. Unfortunately, it wasn’t. We still had a conservative government, and Australia still had no Eurovision title.

I had unknowingly employed confirmation bias to support my belief.

I am much more aware of my confirmation bias now. But I am also aware of how others view situations and how these views have been formed.

There are very intelligent people in this world who can easily understand the most difficult scientific, mathematical, or philosophic problems. But if even the most simple or obvious truth goes against the conclusion they have formed, it is almost impossible to have a discussion. The old agree to disagree conversation comes straight to the forefront.

But people like murderers and child sex offenders and those who hurt animals are non-negotiable. If you support these people, we need to sit down and have a talk. This is something that my confirmation bias does not accept. There is no grey area here. If you willingly kill someone, you’re a bad person. If you willingly touch a child inappropriately, you’re a bad person. If you willingly hurt an animal, you’re a bad person.

If you are someone who supports these people and continues to support them no matter how terribly they have behaved, you are probably affected by confirmation bias. You may be seeing, reading, discussing or consuming information that is making you lean to one side.

Your social media accounts may have filters or “algorithmic editing” which shows you information that you are more likely to agree with, while excluding opposing views. The people with which you surround yourself may be assisting your bias. And this is hard to escape – we are psychologically hardwired to seek information that agrees with our pre-existing values and beliefs.

Yes, climate change is real and happening. Yes, Scott is still in charge of our country. Yes, Kate Miller-Heidke didn’t win Eurovision. But it has just come to my attention that the Shepard avocado is about to hit the shelves for its yearly 6-week stint, and I couldn’t be happier. All is not lost! I have received so much flak over the past few years about my adoration of this glorious fruit, but I guess this is where I’ve used my own research and experiences to structure my beliefs. Just because people continue to say the Shepard is bad, it doesn’t necessarily mean it is bad. I don’t not like Hass; I just like Shepard more. I don’t allow the anti-Shepard articles or memes to devalue my opinion. This is where I think my ability to reflect on my confirmation bias has helped me.

Also, the Shepard avocado hasn’t murdered, touched a child, or hurt and animal.

Where do you see confirmation bias?